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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/27 10:57

   Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 17 to 22 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 17 to 22 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is flat with the DOW up 45 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points 
lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up 
2.40. Livestock trade is weaker with hogs the downside leader. Precious metals 
are firmer with gold $8.00 higher.


   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade working back from 
Monday's weakness with a more risk-on appetite, while harvest pressure and 
dollar strength will likely continue to limit upside as trade fades from the 
highs of the session. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier 
with warmer-than-normal temps over the next couple of weeks. Crop progress 
showed 12% harvested versus 14% on average; maturity at 58% lags the average at 
61%; good to excellent condition at 52% and 21% poor to very poor, unchanged on 
the week. The export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing to 
start the week. Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving 
demand and corn values keeping pressure on for now with natural gas fading a 
little to add support. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to 
harvest footing everywhere and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in 
the deficit areas into early harvest with some areas starting to show more 
strength. On the December chart, trade is just below the 20-day moving average 
at $6.78 with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.58 as support.


   Soybean futures are 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade still working 
in the lower end of the range. Better outside markets are adding support 
Tuesday morning with harvest pressure and demand concerns likely to keep upside 
limited near term. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower, and oil is 60 to 70 points 
higher. South America has early planting underway with late demand picking up 
ahead of the U.S. export window with the stronger dollar potentially pushing 
that further out. Brazil is in better shape than Argentina early, although 
Argentina has aggressively moved last year's soybeans in recent days. Basis 
will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how 
quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further 
near-term basis pressure expected into October. The daily wire has been quiet 
recently. Weekly crop progress showed 63% dropping leaves versus 65% on 
average; 8% harvested versus 13% on average; conditions unchanged at 55% good 
to excellent and 15% poor to very poor. On the November soybean chart, trade 
has the 20-day moving average at $14.34, which we closed below Friday at 
resistance, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.73 as support.


   Wheat futures are 17 to 22 cents higher at midday with the softer dollar. 
Attacks on Odessa are bringing back buying in low volume with little confirmed 
damage at this point. But it continues to add to the murky political situation 
going forward. Spring wheat harvest is effectively wrapped up on the weekly 
report at 96%. Winter wheat planting is expanding with needed rains in some of 
the growing areas with 31% planted versus 30% on average; 9% emerged versus 6% 
on average. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with some light 
buying Tuesday morning. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day moving 
average of $9.24, and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.84 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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