DTN Midday Grain Comments     11/11 10:58

   KC Wheat Is Midday Leader; Rest of Grains Lagging 

   Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 9 to 10 cents lower and wheat is 2 
cents lower to 3 cents higher at midday.  

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   

   

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 115. The dollar index is 
20 lower. Interest rate products are not trading in observance of Veterans Day. 
Energies are mixed with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold down $6.50.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with spillover pressure from 
soybeans and outside market uncertainty, along with harvest pressure moving 
trade back to the lower end of the range to start the week. The weekly USDA 
Crop Progress and Export Inspections reports are delayed due to Veterans Day as 
well. In the USDA reports Friday, yield declined 1.4 bushels per acre (bp) to 
167.0 bpa with acres unchanged to put production at 13.661 billion bushels 
(bb), down from 13.779 bb last month vs. expectations of 13.575 bb, and 
carryout at 1.91 bb vs. 1.799 bb expected with reductions to exports and 
ethanol. Harvest will be slowed the first part of the week with a cold front 
bringing some snow before the weather opens up again the second part of the 
week. Ethanol margins remain stable. Ethanol futures are slightly higher to 
start the week, helping to support blenders with unleaded still near the recent 
highs. Basis should see more pressure as harvest progresses as we move to the 
back half nationally. South America should see areas of improvement as planting 
progresses. On the December contract, support is the $3.71 lows from October, 
with resistance the spike high from Friday at $3.83 3/4. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybeans are 9 to 11 cents lower at midday with Hong Kong unrest raising 
trade anxieties again, with little fresh bullish news. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 
lower, with oil narrowly mixed. In Friday's USDA reports, yield and production 
were unchanged at 46.9 bpa and 3.55 bb, and carryout was raised to 475 million 
bushels (mb) from 460 mb last month. The real has surrendered all of the recent 
gains again after the release of former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da 
Silva, hurting U.S. competitiveness. Bean basis should see pressure start to 
fade. South America should make more progress through the week with improved 
weather, and Brazil heading toward the planting homestretch. On the January 
chart, support is $9.00 after trade broke below the lower Bollinger Band at 
$9.22 this morning.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 3 cents higher with spillover from the row 
crops pressing trade back into support levels to start the week and KC finding 
some buying interest during the day session. The Chicago/KC December spread is 
85 cents with narrower action, and now about 15 cents from the recent highs. 
The corn/hard red winter wheat spread has widened back to 50 cents, keeping 
wheat out of rations. Russian values remain elevated with Australia dry, but 
the U.S. is still struggling to capture a larger share, with the dollar 
remaining at the upper end of the range. The WASDE report showed carryout at 
1.014 billion bushels, down from 1.043 bb last month. The December KC chart 
support is the 20-day at $4.23, which we are around at midday, then the lower 
Bollinger band at $4.15 below that. The upper Bollinger band at $4.32 as 
resistance.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(CZ)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.