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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/19 11:19

   Corn Flat, Soybeans Shooting Up Midday Tuesday

   Corn is flat at midday after a mixed Tuesday morning; soybeans are 9 to 11 
cents higher and wheat is 1 to 7 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 140 points. The dollar index 
is 0.22 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude 
up $0.65. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle and cattle higher, hogs 
lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $6.


   Corn trade found light follow-through buying Tuesday morning, taking 
December to $5.37, 30 cents higher than the post-October WASDE low printed last 
Wednesday. But at midday, we are back to unchanged. Outside markets have stocks 
higher, crude higher and the dollar lower. The sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact 
market action since the WASDE last Tuesday may not continue to support a 
bounce-back rally, considering the corn carryover was higher and we remain in 
the middle of harvest. However, what could support a further rally is the 
extremely good ethanol margins at this juncture. The weekly export inspections 
were okay at 976k tons Monday morning. The weekly crop progress was listed at 
52% versus the 41% five-year average, so the rain slowed harvest a little more 
than some expected last week, but this week is pretty clear. USDA weekly crop 
ratings were unchanged at 60% good to excellent with fair ratings increasing by 
1% with very poor going down 1% to 4%. On the December contract, we have 
support at the 200-day moving average at $5.20 with the $5.06 3/4 low last 
Wednesday now a major support area. Chart resistance is at this morning's high 
of $5.37, then the upper Bollinger Band at $5.46.  


   Soybean trade is 9 to 11 higher at midday with the post-WASDE recovery 
continuing. Meal is up around $5 and bean oil up 0.10 cent. November beans 
challenged the upside resistance at the 20-day moving average at $12.39, but we 
are back a dime off that high at midday. The weekly export inspections were 
very good at 2.3 million tons Monday, giving the market support Tuesday after 
the late recovery on Monday. The weekly harvest progress was listed at 60% 
versus the 55% five-year average with good progress expected this week. The 
crop ratings were no longer provided due to the advance of harvest that ended 
the year at 59% good to excellent on the report last Monday. On the November 
soybean chart, support is at the recent low of $11.84 3/4 with resistance at 
the 20-day currently at $12.39.


   Wheat trade is flat to 7 higher at midday with upward momentum appearing to 
have stalled. The weekly export inspections were poor yesterday at only 140k 
tons. The weekly crop progress has winter wheat plantings at 70% complete, 1% 
slower than the five-year average. Wheat should find buying on pullbacks 
following the bigger picture trend to friendlier domestic and world balance 
sheets, but for Tuesday, profit taking by recent longs have stalled the 
strength with futures around a dime off our daily highs. KC December chart 
support is at the 20-day at $7.33 with resistance at the 10/4 high of $7.64.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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